Guinée-Bissau : consultations de 2025 au titre de l'article IV et huitième revue de la FEC — rapport des services du FMI

IMF Country Report No. 25/167 GUINEA-BISSAU 2025 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION, EIGHTH REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY, REQUESTS FOR REPHASING OF ACCESS, EXTENSION OF THE ARRANGEMENT, WAIVERS OF NONOBSERVANCE OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA, MODIFICATION OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA, AND FINANCING ASSURANCES REVIEW—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; STAFF STATEMENT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR GUINEA-BISSAU In the context of the 2025 Article IV Consultation, Eighth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Rephasing of Access, Extension of the Arrangement, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: • A Press Release including a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board and summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its June 30, 2025 consideration of the staff report on issues related to the Article IV Consultation and the IMF arrangement. • The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on June 30, 2025, following discussions that ended on April 11, 2025, with the officials of Guinea-Bissau on economic developments and policies underpinning the IMF arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility.

Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the Staff Report was completed on June 13, 2025. • An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff. • A Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared by the staffs of the IMF and the World Bank. • A Staff Statement updating information on recent developments. • A Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau. The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents. July 2025

2 © 2025 International Monetary Fund Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org Price: $18.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C.

PR25/230 IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation and Completes the Eight Review under the Extended Credit Facility with Guinea-Bissau FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE • The IMF Executive Board today concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation and completed the eighth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Guinea-Bissau. The completion of the review allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 4. 73 million (about US$ 6. 5 million), bringing total disbursement under the arrangement to SDR 35. 04 million (about US$ 48. 1 million) • Program performance was mixed. Seven out of nine Quantitative Performance Criteria and three out of four Structural Benchmarks for end-December 2024 were met. The continuous Structural Benchmark on debt service payments was met while the continuous Structural Benchmark on the expenditure committee (COTADO) was missed. • Growth is expected to reach 5. 1 percent in 2025 while inflation should average 2 percent. The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5. 8 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting better terms of trade. The authorities are committed to achieving a fiscal deficit of 3. 4 percent of GDP in 2025, to put public debt on a firm downward trajectory. The economic outlook is positive but remains subject to significant domestic and external risks.