Gabon: Public debt projected to soar towards 94% of GDP by 2027 following a $920 million Eurobond issuance

Gabon, emerging from the military transition initiated in 2023 under Brice Oligui Nguema, is seeking to finance its institutional reconstruction and infrastructure via international markets, notably through a $920 million Eurobond issuance mentioned in recent sovereign financing operations. According to International Monetary Fund (FMI) estimates based on data as of April 2, Gabon's public debt, which stood at 70.9% of GDP in 2024, is expected to climb to 78.9% in 2025, then 86.1% in 2026, reaching 94.3% in 2027—a cumulative increase of 23.4 percentage points over three years. This trajectory raises concerns: the CEMAC community ceiling set at 70% was already exceeded in 2024, placing Libreville in non-compliance with regional convergence criteria supposed to guarantee the stability of the franc CFA. For savers, investors, and donors, this dynamic raises questions about the fiscal sustainability of a country heavily dependent on oil revenues, whose volatility directly exposes debt service. The challenge will be to transform these financing operations into productive investments rather than a simple refinancing of existing debt, failing which the post-transition economic trajectory could be durably weakened.