Kenya: Stanbic Holdings relies on credit recovery to boost revenues in the second half of 2026

The Kenyan banking sector is gradually emerging from a high-interest-rate cycle implemented to curb inflation and defend the shilling. The Central Bank of Kenya has initiated monetary easing, breathing new life into credit demand, a key driver of banking revenue. Stanbic Holdings Plc, the Kenyan subsidiary of South Africa's Standard Bank Group, posted a net profit of 6.6 billion shillings (approximately 51 million USD) in the first half of 2026, up by just 1% year-on-year. Its CEO, Joshua Oigara, anticipates accelerated revenue growth in the second half thanks to a rebound in lending. On the balance sheet: loans jumped by 24% to 290 billion shillings (2.2 billion USD), and customer deposits by 28% to 422 billion (3.2 billion USD). These figures matter for Kenyan borrowers, who could benefit from more favorable conditions, and for shareholders, who are attentive to profitability. Analysis: the gap between strong balance sheet growth (+24 to +28%) and near-stagnation in net profit (+1%) raises questions about interest margin compression or an increase in provisions for bad loans, which were not detailed in the source. Stanbic's bet depends largely on the continuation of rate cuts by the CBK, which is itself conditioned on the trajectory of inflation and the stability of the shilling.